Premier League Preview 28/09/2013

Spurs vs Chelsea 12:45 

Today's early kick off features two of the current top four clubs. Spurs have a 100% home record so far in the league whereas Chelsea's away fixtures have seen them pick up one point from a possible six. Last year this fixture saw a couple of goals from Juan Mata help Chelsea to a 4-2 win at White Hart Lane. They will be hard pushed to match that result this time round as Spurs have conceded just once in their first five fixtures. In fact Spurs boast the best defensive record of all the top five European leagues. This is not good news for a Chelsea side that are struggling for goals of late. Chelsea's strikers are yet to register a single goal this season and I cannot see that changing today. Spurs aren't exactly scoring freely either so I do not envisage lots of goals today.

Score Prediction: Spurs 1-0 Chelsea

Aston Villa vs Man City 15:00

Aston Villa welcome free scoring Man City to Villa Park this afternoon. Last season City came away with maximum points with a 1-0 victory and I expect them to achieve maximum points again today. Villa have been woeful at home so far having lost both league games and thumped 4-0 midweek in the Capital One cup by Spurs. Their main man Christian Benteke is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks so they will be looking at new signing Libor Kozak and the returning Gabby Agbonlahor for their goals. Man City on the other hand are not short of attacking options and are the league's top scorers so far. Their two away fixtures this season saw them lose 3-2 to Cardiff and draw 0-0 with Stoke but I expect them to register their first away league win of the season today.

Score Prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Man City

Fulham vs Cardiff  15:00

Fulham are languishing in the relegation zone having not won since the opening day. New boys Cardiff sit a couple of places higher registering two draws and an impressive home win against Man City. They lost last time to Spurs courtesy of a late Paulinho goal but failed to get a single shot on the target in the game. They also lost midweek in the Capital One cup to West Ham so they will be looking to bounce back from back to back defeats. I expect it to be a close game but Fulham will just edge it. With Berbatov and Bent up front they should be able to find their way past the Cardiff goalkeeper. Fulham have kept only one clean sheet in their last 17 home Premier League matches so I also expect Cardiff to score.

Score Prediction: Fulham 2-1 Cardiff

Hull vs West Ham 15:00

Hull have enjoyed a very good start to the season picking up two wins and seven points so far from their opening five games. Bear in mind that Hull have visited Chelsea and Man City already. They sit 11th in the table whilst opponents West Ham lie a few places below in 15th. Hull will have highlighted this game in the fixture list as a great opportunity to pick up three points and I think they will. They will want to build on the away win last time out at Newcastle and West Ham are finding it difficult to score with Carroll and Downing inured. If West Ham do score then it is likely to come from Nolan, Morrison or Jarvis. Personally I don't see West Ham scoring so its just a question of whether Hull can score to snatch the three points.

Score Prediction: Hull 0-0 West Ham

Man United vs West Brom 15:00

Champions Man United will want to bounce back from the embarrassing result against City and the midweek cup win against Liverpool should give them the confidence to beat West Brom today. RVP could return from injury but the key player for United so far this season is Rooney. You get the feeling that United's goals will come from or as a result of Rooney. West Brom scored three last weekend in a convincing win against Sunderland for their first league win of the season. However they have never beaten Man United in the fourteen Premier League games they have played against them. They have also conceded 37 goals in those fourteen games. With RVP likely to return and Rooney well in form I expect United to win. The Baggies will offer a threat going forward and are pretty solid defensively so far this season but United will be itching to get back to winning ways.

Score Prediction: Man United 2-0 West Brom

Southampton vs Crystal Palace 15:00

Southampton have started the season very well and are 7th in the league at the moment. They picked up a massive three points at Anfield last weekend and face a Crystal Palace side who were awful in their home defeat to Swansea. Saints spent big over the summer including new striker Osvaldo. These new acquisitions have yet to turn into a bagful of goals for them. They have scored just 3 goals in 5 games and have yet to win at home this season. They play attractive football, keep the ball, pass it and pass it again but they are lacking in the final third. Lambert has yet to find his shooting boots for Southampton and Osvaldo has not scored for his new club yet. I can't see them finding it difficult to brush aside Palace though and if they win and results elsewhere go their way, they could climb into the top 4.

Score Prediction: Southampton 2-0 Crystal Palace

Swansea vs Arsenal 17:30

A late kick off between two sides who play some of the best football in the league. Arsenal top of the league so far and Swansea, after a slow start, crawling their way into the top half of the table. The Gunners have been playing very well of late with four straight wins and new signing Mesut Ozil fitting in seamlessly to the Arsenal way. With injuries to a host of Arsenal players they will be relying more and more on the creativity of Ozil and the goals of Giroud and Ramsey. Swansea are unbeaten in their last three fixtures and were very impressive in a 3-0 win away to Valencia, although Valencia were down to 10 men. They are struggling with home form though having not won any of their last seven Premier League games at the Liberty. The goals of Michu will still be key to any success that they have this season and he could find the net against an Arsenal side who have kept one clean sheet in the opening five games. I can see both teams scoring and it could really be any scoreline but I think it will be a score draw.

Score Prediction: Swansea 1-1 Arsenal

Premier League Winner 2013/14: More than just a three horse race?

Early Days

I know it is only five games into the season but at this early stage what have we learnt about the supposed "title contenders". Is it still a three horse race between the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea, or are Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool, joining the hunt for the Premier League title this year. 

Premier League table as of 26/09/2013:

		P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	11	6	5	12
2	Spurs	5	4	0	1	5	1	4	12
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	12	4	8	10
4	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	6	2	4	10
5	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	5	3	2	10
6	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	4	2	9
7	Southampton	5	2	2	1	3	2	1	8
8	Man United	5	2	1	2	7	6	1	7

Manchester United       

Current Position: 8th


So the first five league games since the departure of Sir Alex have seen a mixed bag of results. A convincing 4-1 away win at Swansea on the opening day promised much, yet a 4-1 hammering courtesy of noisy neighbours Man City last Sunday, has put a question mark on the title credentials of the reigning champions. Is it all doom and gloom at Old Trafford though? The fixture list has without doubt been less than ideal for United, with the first five games featuring away trips to Man City and Liverpool, as well as a tricky home tie against Chelsea. The worrying fact for United fans is that they failed to win any of these three games and scored only once with a late free kick from Wayne Rooney against Man City.

Rooney back in form: 4 goals from last 5 games in all competitions

However, the next five league fixtures should see United pick up a lot more points than the first five. Home fixtures against West Brom, Southampton and Stoke could, and should, bring maximum points to the Red Devils. Away games against Fulham and bottom of the table, Sunderland, should bring United at least 4 points in my opinion. So although it as not been the best of starts for David Moyes, with his side languishing in 8th, I would expect to see United right back up there by early November. 

Manchester City

Current Position: 3rd

Manchester City made a number of big money signings over the summer adding over £100m worth of overseas footballing talent. Whether they spent wisely or not, time will tell, but their home form is once again carrying them to a strong league position. Home wins against Newcastle (4-0) and Hull (2-0) set them up nicely for the derby day hammering against their Manchester rivals at the Etihad. What is clear is that City are having no troubles finding the back of the net scoring 12 in their last 3 games in all competitions. Is that surprising though when you possess the strike force that Manchester City have. They have replaced the eccentric Mario Balotelli with Alvaro Negredo of Sevilla and the sought after Fiorentina striker Stevan Jovetic. Add to them Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko and I would say City have the best strike force of all the Premier League contenders. 

New manager Manuel Pellegrini has enjoyed a solid start to his reign

Manchester City are looking a much stronger unit than they were last season. Whispers coming out of the Etihad suggested that Mancini was not the most popular manager amongst the players and the Balotelli situation had to have unsettled the team. As bad as Man United were on Sunday, Man City were just as good and if they play anywhere near that week in week out they will be very hard to beat this season. I do think that one thing City struggle with is motivation when they are playing away fixtures against the "lesser" teams. Last season City won only half of their away fixtures and signs are that this trend could continue with a goalless draw against Stoke and defeat at newly promoted Cardiff City already this season. If Man City can address their away form over the coming weeks and months they will not be far off the top of the league come May next year. 

Chelsea

Current Position: 4th

The special one has returned after largely successful spells at Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since his return he has added eight players to the squad including Samuel Eto'o, Andre Schurrle and Willian. Despite sitting in 4th position in the league it has been Chelsea's worst start to a Premier League season in a decade. Mourinho is trying to change the style that Chelsea play and has blamed his rocky start to the season on this. The problem with Chelsea is much simpler than this though. If you don't score goals you don't win football matches and Mourinho's side are having real trouble finding the back of the net. They are still very strong in midfield and with Hazard, Oscar, Willian, Lampard, Schurrle and occasionally Juan Mata, they should have no problems creating chances for the strikers.  

Lukaku scored 17 goals last season on loan at West Brom

The two strikers that Mourinho seems to be sticking with are Samuel Eto'o and Fernando Torres and this is exactly the problem. Eto'o is now 32 and is nowhere near the player he was at Barcelona and even Inter Milan. He wasn't prolific for Anzhi Makhachkala even against the poor calibre of opposition in Russia. Alongside him you have the extremely hit and (often) miss, Fernando Torres. He cost £50m and has scored only 15 goals in 2 and a half seasons for Chelsea. Therefore I do not understand the logic of letting Romelu Lukaku leave on loan again for the season. Admittedly he is still young (20 years old) but he proved last season that he is a handful and certainly has an eye for goal. The solution to the lack of goals could therefore lie in £7m man Demba Ba. He scored 29 goals in two seasons at Newcastle but has barely featured for Chelsea since his arrival. If Chelsea do not start to score more freely then I don't think they can win the league this year. 

More than just a three horse race?

Arsenal 

Current Position: 1st

Arsenal have not looked back since their embarrassing opening day home defeat against Aston Villa. Four straight wins since then have propelled the north London club to the top of the table. Do they really have what it takes to win the title this year and end their trophy drought? Put simply - no. Whilst their first team does have some real quality players in it (Ozil, Giroud, Walcott), you cannot win a 38 game season with the same team week in week out. For example look at the substitutes for the 3-1 win away to Sunderland. If you compare this list to the substitutes that United, City and Chelsea have then you can see why I don't consider Arsenal to be genuine title contenders. 

• 21 Fabianski 
• 05 Vermaelen
• 17 Monreal
• 26 Frimpong
• 31 Miyaichi
• 44 Gnabry
• 37 Akpom

I cannot see Arsenal challenging to finish in the top 2 this season. The best I think they can play for is 3rd and that's if they can avoid injuries to key players and/or invest in a couple more players in January. For now though they are not title contenders. 

Spurs

Current Position - 2nd

Spurs have won 4 of their 5 games so far and sit behind their north London rivals on goal difference only. Despite losing Gareth Bale to Madrid over the summer they have heavily re-invested in new players to push them into the top 4 this season. Soldado, Paulinho, Eriksen and Lamela are real quality acquisitions and could see Spurs achieve Champions League status for next season. AVB has brought together a strong squad of players but it will take time for them to gel and it will be interesting to see how Spurs fair against the bigger clubs. They were disappointing against Arsenal and although they have won 4 of their games, you could not say they have won them convincingly. Three of them were 1-0 wins including two Soldado penalties and a late winner from Paulinho. Mourinho has said that he thinks Tottenham are title contenders but I am going to have to disagree with the special one. 

Liverpool

Current Position - 5th

Liverpool have started very very well this season despite the absence of Luis Suarez. A surprise 1-0 home defeat to Southampton is just a minor blemish on an otherwise impressive start to the season. Three wins including a win against Man United saw Liverpool rise to the top of the table, mainly thanks to the goals of Sturridge. Liverpool do look a good side and with no cup matches to worry about until 2014 they will be able to focus solely on the league. Defensively they look solid and with Suarez and Sturridge they shouldn't find it difficult to score goals. I struggle to see them challenging this year though. They may be close come Christmas but their challenge will peter out come the end of the season. When the season gets to crunch time, experience counts for a lot. Being able to grind out those 1-0 wins away from home whilst not playing well is something United have done for years and is a big contributor to their great success. Even Gerrard, Liverpool's most experienced player has never won a Premier League title. In fact only two of Liverpool's current squad have ever won the league title; Sturridge and Toure. They will certainly challenge for a top 4 position but making that extra step to being title contenders is a completely different kettle of fish and they will fall short again this year. 

Turns out it is just a two horse race

This article started by assuming that United, City and Chelsea were always going to challenge this year, the question was whether there is more than three contenders. The reality is though that there is less than three contenders. In my opinion the top two places this year will be filled once again by the two Manchester clubs. I would say Man City are favourites with the firepower that they have but you can never discount United. From then on it could be anyone of a number of teams that fill the top 4 places. Ultimately Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal and Everton will fill the places from 3rd to 7th but the order in which they finish is really hard to predict. If I had to have an educated guess I would say that this will be the finishing order of the top 7:

1. Man City

2. Man United

3. Chelsea

4. Spurs

5. Arsenal

6. Liverpool

7. Everton