I know it is only five games into the season but at this early stage what have we learnt about the supposed "title contenders". Is it still a three horse race between the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea, or are Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool, joining the hunt for the Premier League title this year.
Premier League table as of 26/09/2013:
| P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | ||
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Spurs | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Man City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 10 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Southampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Man United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
Manchester United
Current Position: 8th
So the first five league games since the departure of Sir Alex have seen a mixed bag of results. A convincing 4-1 away win at Swansea on the opening day promised much, yet a 4-1 hammering courtesy of noisy neighbours Man City last Sunday, has put a question mark on the title credentials of the reigning champions. Is it all doom and gloom at Old Trafford though? The fixture list has without doubt been less than ideal for United, with the first five games featuring away trips to Man City and Liverpool, as well as a tricky home tie against Chelsea. The worrying fact for United fans is that they failed to win any of these three games and scored only once with a late free kick from Wayne Rooney against Man City.
Rooney back in form: 4 goals from last 5 games in all competitions
However, the next five league fixtures should see United pick up a lot more points than the first five. Home fixtures against West Brom, Southampton and Stoke could, and should, bring maximum points to the Red Devils. Away games against Fulham and bottom of the table, Sunderland, should bring United at least 4 points in my opinion. So although it as not been the best of starts for David Moyes, with his side languishing in 8th, I would expect to see United right back up there by early November.
Manchester City
Current Position: 3rd
Manchester City made a number of big money signings over the summer adding over £100m worth of overseas footballing talent. Whether they spent wisely or not, time will tell, but their home form is once again carrying them to a strong league position. Home wins against Newcastle (4-0) and Hull (2-0) set them up nicely for the derby day hammering against their Manchester rivals at the Etihad. What is clear is that City are having no troubles finding the back of the net scoring 12 in their last 3 games in all competitions. Is that surprising though when you possess the strike force that Manchester City have. They have replaced the eccentric Mario Balotelli with Alvaro Negredo of Sevilla and the sought after Fiorentina striker Stevan Jovetic. Add to them Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko and I would say City have the best strike force of all the Premier League contenders.
New manager Manuel Pellegrini has enjoyed a solid start to his reign
Manchester City are looking a much stronger unit than they were last season. Whispers coming out of the Etihad suggested that Mancini was not the most popular manager amongst the players and the Balotelli situation had to have unsettled the team. As bad as Man United were on Sunday, Man City were just as good and if they play anywhere near that week in week out they will be very hard to beat this season. I do think that one thing City struggle with is motivation when they are playing away fixtures against the "lesser" teams. Last season City won only half of their away fixtures and signs are that this trend could continue with a goalless draw against Stoke and defeat at newly promoted Cardiff City already this season. If Man City can address their away form over the coming weeks and months they will not be far off the top of the league come May next year.
Chelsea
Current Position: 4th
The special one has returned after largely successful spells at Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since his return he has added eight players to the squad including Samuel Eto'o, Andre Schurrle and Willian. Despite sitting in 4th position in the league it has been Chelsea's worst start to a Premier League season in a decade. Mourinho is trying to change the style that Chelsea play and has blamed his rocky start to the season on this. The problem with Chelsea is much simpler than this though. If you don't score goals you don't win football matches and Mourinho's side are having real trouble finding the back of the net. They are still very strong in midfield and with Hazard, Oscar, Willian, Lampard, Schurrle and occasionally Juan Mata, they should have no problems creating chances for the strikers.
Lukaku scored 17 goals last season on loan at West Brom
The two strikers that Mourinho seems to be sticking with are Samuel Eto'o and Fernando Torres and this is exactly the problem. Eto'o is now 32 and is nowhere near the player he was at Barcelona and even Inter Milan. He wasn't prolific for Anzhi Makhachkala even against the poor calibre of opposition in Russia. Alongside him you have the extremely hit and (often) miss, Fernando Torres. He cost £50m and has scored only 15 goals in 2 and a half seasons for Chelsea. Therefore I do not understand the logic of letting Romelu Lukaku leave on loan again for the season. Admittedly he is still young (20 years old) but he proved last season that he is a handful and certainly has an eye for goal. The solution to the lack of goals could therefore lie in £7m man Demba Ba. He scored 29 goals in two seasons at Newcastle but has barely featured for Chelsea since his arrival. If Chelsea do not start to score more freely then I don't think they can win the league this year.
More than just a three horse race?
Arsenal
Current Position: 1st
Arsenal have not looked back since their embarrassing opening day home defeat against Aston Villa. Four straight wins since then have propelled the north London club to the top of the table. Do they really have what it takes to win the title this year and end their trophy drought? Put simply - no. Whilst their first team does have some real quality players in it (Ozil, Giroud, Walcott), you cannot win a 38 game season with the same team week in week out. For example look at the substitutes for the 3-1 win away to Sunderland. If you compare this list to the substitutes that United, City and Chelsea have then you can see why I don't consider Arsenal to be genuine title contenders.
- 21 Fabianski
- 05 Vermaelen
- 17 Monreal
- 26 Frimpong
- 31 Miyaichi
- 44 Gnabry
- 37 Akpom
I cannot see Arsenal challenging to finish in the top 2 this season. The best I think they can play for is 3rd and that's if they can avoid injuries to key players and/or invest in a couple more players in January. For now though they are not title contenders.
Spurs
Current Position - 2nd
Spurs have won 4 of their 5 games so far and sit behind their north London rivals on goal difference only. Despite losing Gareth Bale to Madrid over the summer they have heavily re-invested in new players to push them into the top 4 this season. Soldado, Paulinho, Eriksen and Lamela are real quality acquisitions and could see Spurs achieve Champions League status for next season. AVB has brought together a strong squad of players but it will take time for them to gel and it will be interesting to see how Spurs fair against the bigger clubs. They were disappointing against Arsenal and although they have won 4 of their games, you could not say they have won them convincingly. Three of them were 1-0 wins including two Soldado penalties and a late winner from Paulinho. Mourinho has said that he thinks Tottenham are title contenders but I am going to have to disagree with the special one.
Liverpool
Current Position - 5th
Liverpool have started very very well this season despite the absence of Luis Suarez. A surprise 1-0 home defeat to Southampton is just a minor blemish on an otherwise impressive start to the season. Three wins including a win against Man United saw Liverpool rise to the top of the table, mainly thanks to the goals of Sturridge. Liverpool do look a good side and with no cup matches to worry about until 2014 they will be able to focus solely on the league. Defensively they look solid and with Suarez and Sturridge they shouldn't find it difficult to score goals. I struggle to see them challenging this year though. They may be close come Christmas but their challenge will peter out come the end of the season. When the season gets to crunch time, experience counts for a lot. Being able to grind out those 1-0 wins away from home whilst not playing well is something United have done for years and is a big contributor to their great success. Even Gerrard, Liverpool's most experienced player has never won a Premier League title. In fact only two of Liverpool's current squad have ever won the league title; Sturridge and Toure. They will certainly challenge for a top 4 position but making that extra step to being title contenders is a completely different kettle of fish and they will fall short again this year.
Turns out it is just a two horse race
This article started by assuming that United, City and Chelsea were always going to challenge this year, the question was whether there is more than three contenders. The reality is though that there is less than three contenders. In my opinion the top two places this year will be filled once again by the two Manchester clubs. I would say Man City are favourites with the firepower that they have but you can never discount United. From then on it could be anyone of a number of teams that fill the top 4 places. Ultimately Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal and Everton will fill the places from 3rd to 7th but the order in which they finish is really hard to predict. If I had to have an educated guess I would say that this will be the finishing order of the top 7:
1. Man City
2. Man United
3. Chelsea
4. Spurs
5. Arsenal
6. Liverpool
7. Everton
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